Is Winning Only Half the Time Too Tough for a Hobby?
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When we’re improving at something, I think the right balance is plenty of successes and a few failures. We stay motivated by accumulating successes and feeling that we’re starting to get the hang of things, while learning from occasional failures or harder challenges.
For many people, that balance—mostly success, with the occasional failure—probably makes it easier to keep going.
But as long as you keep playing against other people in a two-player game like shogi, you’ll never get that balance.
In principle, if you keep getting matched appropriately, your win rate will approach 50%.
When Success Means Winning, 50% Is Tough
I think winning only half the time is a structural weakness of competitive games, not just shogi.
In a single-player game or a match against the computer, you can increase your win rate by adjusting the difficulty. That isn’t an option if playing against people is the premise.
Even if you alternate wins and losses, losses tend to be more stressful and memorable. Losing streaks aren’t unusual, either.
Some people can still enjoy themselves and keep going. But I suspect many others quit before they get good, thinking, “This isn’t for me,” or “Losing feels too awful for this to be my hobby.”
I think this is less about willpower than about human nature and the balance between success and failure.
Add Your Own Experiences of Success
So, to keep playing competitive games—both to enjoy them and to improve efficiently—I think it’s important to find ways to succeed outside of winning against another person.
In shogi, for example:
Solve easy checkmate puzzles or next-move problems that are within your ability.
Play against an AI that’s a little weaker than you.
Set goals for your games that are separate from the result.
Getting through the opening without a mistake counts as a success.
You spotted a one-move mate threat in the endgame and found a defensive move.
You didn’t give away a piece for nothing. I think even a goal this simple is fine.
Even when you lose, if you achieve the goal you set, you can count that as a success. That’s how I approach shogi myself: if I lose to a stronger player but manage to keep the position equal and hang on until the endgame, I see that as a success.
Just knowing that you can consciously increase the number of successes you recognize for yourself might make competitive games a little easier to stick with.
An Aside: Why Do People Keep Gambling When the Odds Are Even Worse?
This is a slight detour, but while writing this, I wondered why people can keep gambling when the chance of winning is often even lower.
Of course, there are probably many reasons, including the hope of a big win and the way the experience is presented. I don’t think these apply to everyone, but the following might be part of it.
The main aim of gambling is often to experience the overwhelming thrill of winning, rather than to improve through repeated successes.
Luck plays a large part, so a loss is less likely to feel like it was caused solely by your own ability.
By contrast, in a game based entirely on skill, such as shogi, a loss confronts you directly with the result that you were weaker than your opponent. The more strongly you want to improve and play well, the easier it is to take defeat as a judgment of your ability.
When playing a skill-based game like shogi as a hobby, finding ways to stay motivated may be more difficult—and more important—than we imagine.