Why I Don’t Think Kindle Publishing Is an Untapped Opportunity in 2026

I sometimes see articles on note describing Kindle publishing as an untapped opportunity.

A few years ago, that might have sounded realistic.
But in 2026, I don’t think it’s quite right to take that claim at face value.

In this article, I’d like to share an honest view of Kindle publishing today, based on my own experience of publishing books.
If you’re interested in it, I hope this offers a picture closer to reality.

Having actually published books myself, what I feel is that Kindle publishing today is nothing like a world where simply writing something means it will sell.
Quite often, a release makes barely a ripple.

Books That Don’t Sell Really Don’t Sell

To be blunt, once you try it yourself, you’ll see that simply writing a book and putting it on Kindle really doesn’t make it sell.

Run a free promotion and some people will read it.
But the moment you charge for it again, sales drop to almost zero.

I often see people explain that Kindle Unlimited, the subscription reading service, provides income too, making zero revenue unlikely. Even then, there’s a substantial chance nobody finds the book and you earn nothing. Or you might make only a few dozen yen a month.

I think many people who have tried Kindle publishing have experienced this.
Stories about making tens of thousands of yen a month as a side business get attention, but behind them there must be piles of books that are barely read.

Even if you approach Kindle publishing as a writing side business, I think it’s hard to reach the income you’d expect unless the product concept, promotion, and other elements work together. For all the effort of writing, there’s a real chance of ending up with nothing or just a few dozen yen.

It’s true that anyone can put a book on Amazon. Whether it sells is a different question.

Even if you achieve some sales, they tend to peak just after release and gradually decline.
Unfortunately, I think most books also struggle to become an ongoing income source simply because you published them once.

Perhaps There Really Was More Promise a Few Years Ago

When I read older articles and personal accounts about Kindle publishing, I feel a bit of a time lag.

Those articles have an air of:
“There’s still room.”
“Individuals have a real chance.”

I think that probably was true in some respects at the time.

Claims that Kindle was an untapped opportunity weren’t necessarily all false. But they reflected the market as it felt then, which I think is quite different from 2026.

The problem is the gap that appears if you assume those success formulas and that atmosphere still apply today.

But Isn’t the Ebook Market Growing?

If you only hear the broad claim that ebooks are growing,
you might assume that text-heavy practical guides, essays, and explanatory books have the same favorable conditions and plenty of opportunities.

But while the ebook market overall is said to be growing, comics are at the center of that growth. I think that’s an important point.

Text-only books don’t automatically benefit from the momentum of the entire ebook market. If anything, competition seems to be getting fiercer for the kinds of books individuals publish on Kindle.

AI Has Lowered the Barrier to Entry, Making Ordinary Books Harder to Sell

Another major change over the past few years has been AI.

AI has unquestionably made it much easier for an individual to get a book published.

Naturally, that also means more people entering the market.
More books cover similar subjects, with similar content and similar approaches.

Publishing has become easier, but avoiding obscurity has become harder. To stand out, you need some form of originality, differentiation, an author brand, or something comparable.

Where Kindle Publishing Can Still Be Worthwhile

Does that mean Kindle publishing is no longer worth doing? If you’re serious about earning money from a side business, I think there may be better options.

Even so, the biggest reason it can be worthwhile is the satisfaction of having a book of your own available on Amazon.

This is something you understand by trying it. Even as an ebook, turning your knowledge and experiences into a completed book brings a considerable sense of accomplishment and satisfaction apart from any financial return.

Rather than expecting substantial income, I’d be happy if it reached even a small number of readers, and with a little luck, it might earn some pocket money. I think that’s about the right level of expectation for Kindle publishing today.

Summary

Here’s how I see it.

“Just publish anything and it will sell” is very hard to achieve now. I think it’s even less realistic if you simply churn something out with AI.
The sense of untapped opportunity from a few years ago belonged to that market environment. Things are different now.
Ebook growth is centered on comics; the market for text-heavy books isn’t that large.
AI has made production easier, but the risk of getting buried has increased too.
If money is the goal, simply writing and publishing won’t be enough. You’ll need to think carefully about strategy.
Ultimately, I think it suits people who find value in having their own book on Amazon in itself.

I’ve thought about Kindle publishing through my own trial and error, too.

Ways of thinking that help you keep going realistically without giving up;
My experience of writing and publishing my very first book;

I’ve collected these in a book called Kindle Publishing with the Expect Nothing Strategy: A Rational Mindset to Help You Actually Finish and Publish Your Book, available in English.

Kindle Publishing with the Expect Nothing Strategy: A Rational Mindset to Help You Actually Finish and Publish Your Book cover

It isn’t a book about guaranteed success or easy money. I tried to write as realistically as possible, based on experience.

If this article has made you curious about Kindle publishing, or you want something other than exaggerated success stories, I’d be happy if you picked it up.

Kindle Unlimited subscribers can read it at no additional cost! I’d be delighted if you had a browse. 📚

Kindle Unlimited membership options on Amazon